Italian Companies, Exports in 2021, Expansive Economic Policies
And implementation of the Next Generation EU plan
Financing the real economy and an ambitious green agenda
SACE Risk Map
“One year after the declaration of a pandemic, the SACE Risk Map gives us a completely new snapshot of the world. The restart of Italian companies will be promoted by some important drivers. Exports, first and foremost, which has always been a fundamental engine of our economy, will certainly be a lever to activate. But alone it will not be enough to hook the recovery. It will also be necessary to focus on the implementation of the Next Generation EU plan; on a global financial system focused on financing the real economy and on an ambitious green agenda, all this in an inclusive logic at the service of generations to come “.
2021 promises to be a year of transition towards the exit from the pandemic crisis, a year characterized by the so-called “V” factors: Viruses, Variants and Vaccines, but also a path of full recovery of the world economy after the deep recession recorded in the 2020.
The recovery will be spread to all geographies, albeit in a heterogeneous way. Its intensity in the first quarter of the year will remain weak, while starting from April, thanks also to the advancement of vaccination programs, there will be an increasingly stable course.
The SACE 2021 Risk Map reflects these dynamics, taking on a brighter color than last year. In fact, there is a generalized increase in credit risks and political risks, in a context still characterized by high uncertainty due to the continuation of the pandemic and its economic and social impacts on governments, businesses and households all over the world.
Credit risk levels increase in particular in the sovereign component, thanks to the marked increase in public debt.
This is, in fact, one of the levers with which governments have acted to cope with the crisis, but its sustainability is increasingly becoming a critical factor, particularly in some economies of Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Banking systems are generally more stable, especially in advanced countries, thanks also to the strengthening of macro prudential policies, but will suffer from the credit deterioration – in several cases substantial – of client companies.
In terms of political risks, it is the component of political violence that has clearly worsened. The socio-political framework, already put to the test in 2020, will be even more stressed by the growing tensions linked to the persistence of the virus and its effects on employment and the income capacity of families and businesses. These aspects will be more evident especially in those contexts where the political-institutional structures are more fragile and the socio-economic safety nets less developed.
A risk map a little more red and a little less yellow, but without neglecting the green side. The economic and social impacts of the pandemic have made the sustainability issues more explicit and strengthened the belief that recovery must take place on new foundations, rethinking the economy in a sustainable key not only at the environmental level, but also at the human level.
In a context of general economic recovery and international trade, there is no lack of growth opportunities on foreign markets for our companies even in the most “unstable” areas, starting in particular with those countries that are more “solid” (for example , the United Arab Emirates within the MENA area or Peru in the Latin American area), or more resilient (such as Vietnam, in Asia).
Companies can therefore look to 2021 with cautious optimism, with the awareness, however, of having to quickly adapt their strategies to a constantly evolving context and constantly monitor both the markets of interest and the old and new counterparties to whom they will have to appropriately grant terms. more advantageous payment methods.
The availability of a plurality of vaccines against Covid-19, several already being administered, feeds decidedly encouraging signals towards a possible greater capacity to contain the pandemic in the coming months.
Overall, 2021 therefore promises to be a year of transition towards the exit from the health emergency, driven on the one hand by positive factors linked to scientific progress and exposed to new waves on the other. If the first quarter of the year sees the maintenance of restrictive measures on a global scale, starting from April there will be gradual easing in conjunction with the advancement of vaccination prIn this context, economic uncertainty necessarily remains at historically high levels, albeit lower than the peak reached during the first wave. As uncertainty grows, it is evident that the forecasting exercise of economic indicators is more complex: where the uncertainty on the political-economic scenario remains low, forecasters tend to converge on a similar vision, while with greater uncertainty the visions of the consensus are more fragmented and divergent.
Although the picture is still uncertain and vulnerable, consensus projections indicate a “V” recovery of the world economy in 2021, with a full recovery of GDP after the deep recession recorded last year.
According to the recent forecasts of Oxford Economics (OE), in the base scenario – the one with the highest probability of occurrence – global economic activity is expected to recover by 5% in 2021, halfway between the data of the Organization for Cooperation and economic development, OECD, (+ 4.2%) and the International Monetary Fund, IMF, (+ 5.5%). Over the next two years, world GDP is expected to stabilize on a positive but less sustained growth path. However, the timing of resolution of the crisis still remains highly variable, making the forecasting exercise of the world economy susceptible to both upward and downward revisions.
March 2, 2021
Source Sace
